Is there a power imbalance between American and European universities when it comes to publication impact and research funding? Of course: elite institutions like Harvard, Stanford, and Oxford lead the way, while smaller universities such as Bayreuth linger in the long tail. This holds for the attractiveness for younger researchers searching for a career, the impact factor of publications, and usually the endowment with research funding.
Will AI, available to everyone, even out the playing field? Is it a game-changer? It might be since tools like ChatGPT and other AI solutions are accessible globally. All that's needed is an internet connection and a desktop computer. It won't matter where the researcher is located--whether it's Mombasa or Miami, Bangalore or Boston, Frankfurt or San Francisco--as long as they know how to make use of generative AI and publicly available data.
The conversations about the implications of AI on universities can be looked at in two ways. Supporters of the concept posit that high-end universities have the capacity to use their wealth and receptiveness to technology to carry out AI research projects, resulting in a greater disparity in resources between these universities and those without as much financial backing.
On the other hand, one of the greatest opportunities afforded by AI is the democratization of opportunity. Through the use of open-source software and resources, anyone from anywhere can access the same tools and data sets. This evens the playing field for everyone, regardless of location or means. Furthermore, success in using AI will depend more on creativity and innovation than financial resources, allowing those with a limited budget to still make advances in their research. In this case, the chasm could decrease as anyone with access to open AI resources has the potential to succeed, regardless of their geographic location.
Attending DLD23 in Munich in January 2023, I was lucky enough to approach Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee with this question. Their answers differ in detail, but the general sentiment is: the power curve is rock solid, and if you are a small university somewhere in the long tail, you have to act fast.
Erik's answer was: The power law between American and European universities will likely still be in effect when it comes to publication impact and research funding. Elite institutions like Harvard, Stanford, and Oxford will continue to lead the way, while smaller universities such as Bayreuth will remain in the long tail. However, AI could give a new competitive edge to universities that are quick to act on embracing the technology. Those that provide their researchers with technical access and capabilities, use AI in teaching and exams proactively, and create an AI-friendly environment that allows for experimentation with data sets have the potential to move up the power law curve faster than those who are slower at adapting. On the other hand, those who try to suppress using AI or go back to traditional methodologies risk further falling behind. Ultimately it is up to each university’s leader(s) to determine whether they want to move up or slide down this curve.
Andrew's answer: We do not know the answer to that question yet. However, most new technologies have throughout the years increased the effect of the power curve, one way or the other. What might happen if you look at a particular researcher, is that AI is a diamond seeker, meaning that AI is very much capable by sifting through tons of research writings to detect promising new research better than humans might do (e.g through a manual structured literature review, which is always biased). In that case, researchers will get increased visibility even if having few publications (early career) and then be capable to move to a better university up the power law curve. Even when you have the same access to research tools regardless of geography, it is still more attractive to the particular researcher to move where brains who you can go to lunch with, are in one place.
Disclosure: this blog post has been drafted, translated, edited and proofread using sudowrite.com and deepl.com.
